Marys Medicine

Mfdp.gov.lr

F O R E W O R D
In 2014, our country came under tremendous economic pressure following the worst-ever Ebola outbreak since it first started in 1976, in the then Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Outbreak of the deadly Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) affected all growth sectors and nearly paralyzed our economy. As a result, the economic recovery and stabilization process became one of the most significant priorities for the Government. Our Real GDP growth was revised from a pre-Ebola forecast of 5.9 per cent to 0.3 per cent at end-December 2014. Prior to the EVD outbreak, the country was experiencing a slump in its economic activities as a consequence of a fall in domestic demand coupled with a fall in the global prices of the country's key commodity exports – rubber and iron ore. Thus, the major shocks came through the mining, agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors, thereby hurting both our exports earnings and our domestic revenue generation. The effect of the EVD outbreak filtered through the health sector as it became overwhelmed and nearly led to its total collapse. The Education sector experienced similar shock as schools remained shut down up to the end of 2014. As for the health-related spending as a result of the EVD, the Government experienced increased public expenditure pressures which would have resulted into a debt crisis had it not been for strong support from our development partners. Some resources which were meant to fund our development goals as spelt out in the Agenda for Transformation (AfT) were redirected to the health sector for the purposes of maintaining the Ebola Treatment Units (ETUs), paying salaries of health-care workers, feeding Ebola patients, and providing other logistical supplies for the fight against Ebola. Despite all these challenges, inflation was contained modestly at single digit due to strong macroeconomic management and improved cooperation between the fiscal and the monetary authorities. In addition, the integration of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Planning & Economic Affairs in 2014 is expected to synergize budgeting and planning in a holistic manner in line with the Agenda for Transformation and Liberia Rising 2030 Vision. In this third edition of the Annual Economic Review, we present highlights of developments in the real, fiscal, monetary, external sectors. For the first time, we are also highlighting other social protection issues, especially those that have socio-welfare implications in our society. The Government remains committed to its policy for more job creation through inclusive growth and the creation of opportunities for small and medium enterprises. Meanwhile, the provision of infrastructure, especially energy still remains on top of the priority list. In 2015, our economy is projected to contract at 1.1 per cent in real terms instead of the initial forecast of 6.8 per cent. As the Government together with our development partners, regional and international institutions and organizations continue with the fight against Ebola, we are certain that Liberia will be declared Ebola-free in 2015. We are steadfast and will continue to work with the relevant stakeholders to deliver on our promises of sound macroeconomic stability, augmented resources mobilization and the fostering of inclusive and sustainable economic growth. We are optimistic that the economy will eventually rebound to its pre-Ebola level of growth that will enable us achieve the goals of Vision 2030. Amara M. Konneh
Minister of Finance & Development Planning, Republic of Liberia
February 2015
TAB LE O F CO NT EN TS
LIST O F FI GURES
LIST O F TABLES
ACRONYMS
Annual Economic Review Agenda for Transformation Budget Framework Paper Bureau of Immigration & Naturalization Balance of Payments Central Bank of Liberia Commonwealth & Independent States Extended Credit Facility Economic Community of West African States Environmental Protection Agency Economic Stabilization Recovery Plan Ebola Treatment Unit Ebola Virus Disease Foreign Direct Investment Freight on Board Gross Domestic Product Government of Liberia Integrated Financial Management Information System International Monetary Fund International Labour Organization Left Hand Side (graph) Liberia Revenue Authority Liberia Water & Sewer Corporation Middle East & North Africa Million Barrel a Day Ministry of Finance and Development Planning Millennium Development Goals Ministry of Education Ministry of Health Mano River Union Medium Term Expenditure Framework Public Financial Management Public Sector Investment Plan Real Effective Exchange Rate Right Hand Side (graph) Rest of the World Sub-Saharan Africa United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response World Development Indicators World Economic Outlook World Health Organization EXECUTI VE SUMMARY
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
World economies continued to struggle in 2014 following global weaknesses in 2013. Global
output in 2014 was estimated to remain relatively unchanged at 3.3 per cent, about the same
growth rate recorded in 2013. The seemingly unchanged forecast is a reflection of weaker-than-
expected global activity, pooling risks, falling commodity prices, deepening geopolitical
tensions, low growth potential in advanced economies and declining growth in emerging
markets.
Advanced Economies
Real GDP growthin2014for advanced economies was estimated at 1.8 per cent following a growth of 1.4 per cent in 2013.The growth in the European Union (EU) was projected to increase from about 0.2 per cent in 2013 to 1.4 per cent in 2014. In the United States, growth was estimated to remain relatively unchanged at about 2.2 per cent in 2014 as a result of harsh winter, inventory correction and slowdown in US exports. In the United Kingdom, economic activity was estimated to increase by 3.2 per cent in 2014 up from 1.7 per cent in 2013 as a result of buoyant consumption and business investment; while the Japanese economy was projected to contract by 0.9 percentage points in 2014 down from 1.5 per cent in 2013 as a result of further increases in consumption tax, which is expected to continue in 2015. Emerging and Developing Economies
In emerging market and developing economies, growth was estimated to decrease by 0.3 per cent from 4.7 per cent in 2013 to 4.4 per cent in 2014. Major contributors to the declining growth were China whose growth was projected to slow from 7.7 per cent in 2013 to 7.4 per cent in 2014, and the Emerging and Developing Asia region whose GDP growth was projected to decline from about 6.6 per cent in 2013 to about 6.5 per cent in 2014. Real GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean was estimated to fall by more than 50 per cent from 2.7 per cent in 2013 to about 1.3 per cent in 2014. The major contributor to the fall in the Latin America growth rate is Brazil where investment remains weak thereby leading to contraction in economic activities. Growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States was projected to experience a decline from about 2 per cent in 2013 to 0.75 per cent in 2014 as a result of declining investment, large capital outflows and increased tension between Ukraine and Russia. Sub-Saharan Africa
In 2014, overall GDP growth for Sub-Saharan Africa was estimated at 5.1 per cent, the same growth rate recorded in 2013. But many economies in the region anticipated continued strong economic growth, mostly driven by increased agriculture production and the vigour to invest in infrastructure. The regions, however, faced serious threats from global financial conditions, reduced growth in emerging economies, and eruption of the EVD outbreak in West Africa. Nigeria growth was estimated at about 7 per cent in 2014, up from 5.4 per cent in 2013. The projected increase in growth in economic activities was mainly attributed to improved performance in key non-oil sectors. On the contrary, South Africa growth in 2014 was estimated to decrease by to 1.4 per cent, compared to the 1.9 per cent a year earlier. The decline in growth was mainly driven by low confidence in the economy, insufficient electricity supply and continuous difficult labour situation. In Ghana, for 2014, growth was estimated to fall to 4.5 per cent down from 7.1 per cent for 2013, mainly driven by exchange rate and inflationary pressure resulting from large macroeconomic imbalances. Similar macro-imbalances affected the Zambian economy where growth was estimated to decrease to 6.5 per cent, from 6.7 per cent in 2013. The South Sudanese economy was projected to contract massively by 12.3 per cent, mainly driven by political tensions and the deteriorating security situations. Mano River Union (MRU) Economies
In the Mano River Union (MRU) economies, real growth in 2014 was estimated to sharply decline in all three countries (Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone) as a result of massive deceleration in economic and financial activities due to the worst ever EVD outbreak which erupted in Guinea in early 2014. In Liberia, real GDP growth for 2014 was revised from a pre-Ebola forecast of 5.9 per cent to 0.3 per cent. The economies of Sierra Leone and Guinea were estimated to decline similarly in 2014; growth in Sierra Leone was projected to decline from 11.3 per cent to 4.0 per cent, while growth in Guinea declined from a forecast of 4.5 per cent annual rate to about 0.5 per cent. (See Table1). Table 1: Growth rates in Mano River Union, 2014-2015 Projection
December
December
Source: IMF,WB and Countries Staff Estimates, 2014 DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
The Liberian economy came under tremendous pressure in 2014 from the worst ever EVD outbreak, which threatened and nearly paralyzed the flourishing social and economic progress made since 2006. In less than twelve months, the number of cases and fatality of the Ebola virus surpassed the combined 20 EVD outbreaks since 1976. Having sustained an average real growth of approximately 7.5per cent since 2006, the economy contracted to about -0.4 per cent at the end of the third quarter of 2014, but growth for 2014 is now expected at 0.3 per cent. The adverse impacts of the outbreak on the economy are also reflected in job losses and low outputs of the services, agricultural and manufacturing sectors which have resulted into contraction in domestic revenue. Social, Economic and Fiscal impact of the Ebola Virus Disease
The Ebola crisis weakened the Government's capacity to ideally generate needed revenues and has posed additional pressure on public expenditures. The revenue reduction is mainly envisaged through cuts in economic activities, employment and shrinking of tax compliance. The increase expenditure is associated with maintaining stability in the health sector through awareness and sensitization, sanitation, logistics and supplies, increased social protection, increased payment of health care workers incentive and settlement of civil servants salaries. The potential losses in revenues generation and increased public expenditures could result to public debt increases, and further increased reliance on aid. Initially, funds which were meant for development project were redirected, as US$20 million from the budget was committed to addressing the prevailing health crisis. In addition, Government revenues from taxes, tariff and customs from major sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, mining and services became threatened by risk aversion behaviour and restriction on movement. The deadly Ebola virus disease greatly affected the education sector as well as the health sector. Many persons, including students and teachers lost their lives. Following the declaration of the state of emergency the imposition of curfew and quarantine zones, all educational institutions in the country closed down as the disease began to ravish continuously. There were losses of study time as students could not assess learning facilities as usual. Private schools laid off instructors due to the halt in school activities, thereby contributing to increased unemployment. The prolonged closure could derail the progress made against the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) as dropout rate and teen age pregnancy could increase and psycho-social problems increase at homes. Real Sector Developments
Agriculture and Forestry
In 2014, disruption of the agriculture sector which contributes about 33.5per cent of GDP had a major impact on exports earnings. The production and shipment of rubber, being the single most important agricultural export commodity, was greatly affected due to disruptions in smallholder farming activities, and difficulties in getting produce from quarantined zones to the port for shipment. Furthermore, global rubber price continues to take a nosedive on the international market, signalling danger to the fiscal space as losses in revenues intake from exports earnings could impact the budget execution in priority areas. International price of rubber fell by 22 per cent in 2014 to 88.6 US cents per pound from the 114.6 US cents per pound recorded in 2013. Mining and Panning
Activities in the mining sector, another important source of revenue were disrupted due to expatriate repatriation and travel restriction placed as a result of the Ebola outbreak. In 2014, the sector accounted for 10.7per cent of GDP compared to 17 per cent of GDP in 2013 and 56 per cent of total exports (US$559 million).In 2014, however, reduction in export earnings due to a fall in iron-ore price on the international markets from US$134.9 per metric ton in 2013 to US$98.6 per metric ton inadvertently impacted domestic revenue mobilization. Mining activities, which is largely driven by iron ore exploitation, was estimated to contract in 2014 from a projected 4.4 per cent growth to about e 0.1 per cent in real terms. The contraction is mainly attributed to reduced concession activities accompanied by the delay in phase 2 expansion work by the largest iron ore concession, Arcelor Mittal. The hospitality industry which is an important source of Government revenue has been highly hit by the outbreak. Average hotel occupancy dropped from over 70 per cent before the crisis to about 30 per cent as at September at the same time weekly commercial flights dropped from 27 between January and August 2014 to only 6 from the beginning of September 2014. In addition, inflight visitors in 2014 dropped significantly by 91 per cent to 3,157 persons, compared to the 39,118 admitted in the country in 2013. Since government taxes are collected on the number of hotel occupancy, the reduction in these activities signals significant loss of revenues. Growth in this sector has been revised downward from 7.2 per cent in 2013 to 3.0 per cent in 2014. The downgrade is reflected in weakened commercial activities at hotels and restaurants. Even though end-of-year reports suggest increasing occupancy rates at most of the hotels due to the inflow of foreign humanitarian workers to respond to the EVD crisis thus restoring some levels of stability in economic activities in the hospitality industry, an imminent challenge is maintaining these activities as these workers begin returning when Liberia is declared Ebola-free. As a result of weakening output in 2014 due to the deadly EVD, growth in manufacturing declined considerably to less than 1 per cent in real term from 9.2 per cent realized in 2013. Furthermore, the high cost of electricity and the increased overhead impact businesses' turnover thus affecting revenue generation. Comparing total production in the first half of 2014 with similar period in 2013, beverages decreased on average by 12 per cent, with the biggest decrease (21 per cent) coming from beer production. This contraction of real growth in this sector is mainly attributed to weakening activities and transactions in the hospitality industry. In 2014, the Government through close collaboration with the business community and monetary authorities, synergized efforts to ensuring stability of prices of essential commodities such as food and energy, as well as the exchange rate, thereby resulting into moderate changes in inflation. As at end December 2014, inflation remained single digit at 7.7 per cent. This achievement was made possible as a result of complementary interactions between fiscal and monetary authorities. Monetary Sector Development
Liberian dollars in circulation as at end of September 2014 amounted to L$8,642.5 million, representing an increase of 1.51 per cent over the same period in 2013. The increase in the circulation of Liberian dollars is attributable to a 4.91 per cent increase in currency outside the banking system which rose from L$6,474.7 million at end-September 2013 to L$6,880.9 million at end of September 2014. On the other hand, currency in banks decreased by 9.88 per cent from L$1,954.9 at the end of September 2013 to L$1,761.7 at the end of September 2014. The decrease in the stock of currency in banks can be attributed to the increase in the amount of currency outside the banking system. Money supply (M1) fell by 1.07 per cent to L$33,325.2 million recorded at end of September 2014, from the amount L$33,648.0 million recorded at end of September 2013. The contraction in money supply is mainly due to the reduction in demand deposits. Demand deposits during the period fell by 2.38 per cent to the amount L$26,444.3 million at end-September 2014 from L$27,089.0 million at end-September of the previous year. Broad Money (M2) which measures the overall liquidity in the banking system increased by 2.49 per cent during the period under review from L$49,285 million at end September 2013 to L$50,510.6 million at end September 2014. The main driver for growth in broad money is the quasi money which grew by 9.9 per cent mainly as a result of 10.07 per cent increase in time and saving deposits. The average Liberian dollar exchange rate depreciated by 6.1 per cent over the course of 2014, from L$79.64 per US$1.00 at end-2013 to L$85.14 end September 2014. The major contributing factors that led to the depreciation in the foreign exchange market was the high demand for foreign exchange needed to service import payments in the economy. The average saving deposit rate remained unchanged at the end of September 2014 from the same period in 2013. The year-on-year comparison shows a decrease by 0.5 per cent from 2.01 per cent in 2013 to 2.00 per cent in 2014. The average lending rate declined by 1.8 per cent to 13.28 per cent at end September 2014. However, average personal loan rates increased marginally by 0.1 per cent during the period, while average mortgage rates remained unchanged. The average personal loan rate registered a 1 per cent increase at end September 2014 to 14.04 per cent from 14.03 per cent during the corresponding period in 2013. Fiscal Sector Development
The National Legislature approved a national budget of US$635.2 million for FY2014/15, representing a 9 per cent increase compared to the US$582.9 million approved for FY2013/14. The FY2014/15 budget was revised from an initial estimate of US$559.35 million submitted to the National Legislature due to the unprecedented health crisis and the GoL's Vision to keep the implementation of its development agenda on course. Spending on social welfare services such as feeding of patients in hospitals, clinics, treatment (isolation) centres, etc. along with the provision of safe drinking water and sanitary supplies to quarantined communities as well as compensation of employees are some of the major priorities areas in the budget. Compensation for employees accounts for 38.57 per cent of the national budget. This was followed by use of goods and services, public investment (PSIP), grants, interest payment and social benefits comprising of 27.65 per cent, 18.45 per cent, 13.65 per cent, 1.50 per cent and 0.17 per cent respectively. Of the approved revenue envelop, core revenue accounts for US$460.80 million (72.54 per cent) while borrowings and contingent revenue constitute US$108.64 million (17.10 per cent) and US$65.80 million (10.36 per cent)respectively. Actual grand total revenues collection for the first half of FY2014/15 amounted to US$297.22 million, representing about 47 per cent of the approved resource envelop. Of this amount, tax revenue collected is US$179.44 million (53 per cent); while other Non-tax revenue, grants and borrowings respectively accounted for US$28.32 million (45 per cent), US$41.57 million (70 per cent) and US$47.89 million (44 per cent) of total projections. External Sector Development
The current account deficit was estimated to have further widened in 2014 as iron ore and rubber
export fell significantly below the level previously anticipated. The Merchandize trade deficit
reduced by 3.2 per cent to US$646 million in 2014, compared to US$ 667.2 million recorded at
the end of 2013. Total exports (fob) of which iron ore constitutes 56 per cent, amounted to
US$393, a 30 per cent reduction compared to US$559 million recorded in 2013.In 2014, total
commodity exports fell by 20 per cent, from US$560.3 million to US$449.3 million. The fall is
mainly driven by 11 per cent drop in iron ore exports compared to 2013 and a massive decrease
in rubber exports by 43 per cent, compared to 2013. The two major players in the exports
markets in 2014 are Iron ore and rubber, both constitutes two third, of which iron ore is the
largest, at 64 per cent. Total commodity import in 2014 was US$801.5 million, a 30 per cent
decrease compared to the amount recorded in 2013. Petroleum products, mineral and lubricant
recorded the largest share of imports, 27 per cent and 32 per cent respectively.

The Capital and financial account in 2014 was estimated to have decreased by 70 per cent to US$461 million, from US$1,529.38 million recorded in 2013. The decrease is mainly associated with the significant decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) the economy witnessed during the Ebola crisis. However, the increased transfers of Ebola- related items played a key role in closing some of the gaps in the capital and financial account. The Public Financial Management (PFM) Reforms
The Public Financial Management (PFM) system continues to trend positively, inclusive of reforms and improved fiscal sanity both in an effective and efficient manner. Achievements as a result of sound PFM reforms over the many years including 2014, are the following:  The completion, approval and subsequent implementation of the Medium Term Debt Strategy for prudent debt management;  The enactment of the Liberia Revenue Authority (LRA) Act and the subsequent operationalization of the new agency on 1 July 2014, marking the official separation and independence of the tax collection functions from the tax policy functions of the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning. 1. INTRO DUCTIO N
This report covers some achievements and main challenges especially due to Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Outbreak during 2014 and benchmarks progress against the baseline established in the 2012 Economic Review. The report has expanded slightly in scope and in focus as a result of changes in data availability. The completion of the Establishment Survey in 2013 and the commencement of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey in January 2014 by LISGIS is expected to significantly contribute to improved data in the near-term, particularly the Government's ability to construct accurate national accounts (required to re-base GDP). This will be reflected in future Annual Economic Reviews as data availability and quality improve. This report focuses on the developments and challenges faced in 2014 on the following sectors:  The real sector - agriculture and fisheries, forestry, mining and commerce, and industry;  The social services sector - the activities of institutions providing basic social services such as health and sanitation, education, electricity generation and distribution, water and sewage, and the Government's public investment priority projects;  The fiscal sector - the central Government operations;  The monetary sector - the changes in the interest and inflation rates as well as other monetary developments; and  The external sector - the country's trade performance and changes in the balance of The report is not intended as a policy document; it merely sets out the current economic conditions and highlights some areas of growth and potential risks to the economy. The Ministry of Finance and Development Planning would like to thank the Central Bank of Liberia, Ministries and Agencies and donor partners for their assistance in data provision. 2. I NTERNALTIO NAL E C ONO MIC DE VELO PME NT
Overview
Global economy continues to struggle following setbacks in 2013 and the first half of 2014. World output was estimated at 3.3 per cent in 2014 which represent no increase compared to the 3.3 per cent recorded in 2013. The weakened growth forecast was largely due to weaker-than-expected global activity as a result of increased downside risks, deepening geopolitical tensions, falling commodity prices, weaker certainty in financial market trading, low growth potential in advance economy and the decline in growth potential in emerging markets. This section highlights developments in the major economic zones of the world. Advanced Economies
Within the advanced economies, overall Real GDP rose by an estimated 1.8 per cent in 2014 compared a growth rate of1.4 per cent recorded in 2013, while growth in the European Union (EU) was projected 1.4 per cent in 2014, up from about 0.2 per cent recorded in 2014. In the United States, growth potential remains broadly unchanged at 2.2 per cent, the same growth rate recorded in 2013. The economy continued to experience sluggish growth on account of uncertainties and tighter financial conditions due to higher-than-expected U.S long-term interest rates as well as induced fiscal measures which weakened consumer confidence, at the same time derailed investor confidence. In the United Kingdom, economic growth was estimated at 3.2 per cent for 2014, up from the 1.7 per cent recorded in 2013, while the Canadian economy faced the same sluggish output growth in 2014 as the United States because of their financial and economic linkages. In Japan, economic activity was projected to expandby0.9 per cent in 2014, down from the 1.5 per cent real growth rate obtained in 2013. The downward trend in output is the result of further surge in consumption tax which is expected to continue in 2015.In addition, there are growing uncertainties regarding investment prospects as a result of unforeseen possibility of natural disasters, and anticipated fiscal adjustments. Emerging & Developing Economies
In emerging and developing economies, growth was estimated to decrease by 0.3 percentage point from 4.7 per cent in 2013 to 4.4 per cent in 2014. Major contributors to the declining growth were China whose growth was projected to slow from 7.7 per cent in 2013 to 7.4 per cent in 2014, and the Emerging and Developing Asia region whose GDP growth was projected to decline from about 6.6 per cent in 2013 to about 6.5 per cent in 2014. Real GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean was estimated to fall by more than 50 per cent from 2.7 per cent in 2013 to about 1.3 per cent in 2014. The major contributor to the fall in the Latin America growth rate is Brazil where investment remains weak thereby leading to contraction in economic activities. Growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States was projected to experience decline from about 2 percent in 2013 to 0.75 percent in 2014 as a result of declining investment, large capital outflows and increased tension between Ukraine and Russia. In the Middle East and North African (MENA) economies, growth was estimated at 2.7 per cent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points above 2013 level. Table 2: Indicators of Economic Performance in Advanced Economies
Unemployment rate Consumer Price
(% change)
(% change)
(% change)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2014,ILO 2014 Sub-Saharan Africa
In 2014, overall GDP growth for Sub-Saharan Africa was estimated at 5.1 per cent, the same growth rate recorded in 2013. But many economies in the region anticipated continued strong economic growth, mostly driven by increased agriculture production and the vigour to invest in infrastructure. The regions, however, faced serious threats from global financial conditions, reduced growth in emerging economies, and eruption of the EVD outbreak in West Africa. Nigeria growth was estimated to at about 7 per cent in 2014, up from 5.4 per cent in 2013. The projected increase in growth in economic activities was mainly attributed to improved performance in key non-oil sectors. On the contrary, South Africa growth in 2014 was estimated to decrease by 0.5 percentage point to 1.4 per cent, compared to the 1.9 per cent a year earlier. The decline in growth was mainly driven by low confidence in the economy, insufficient electricity supply and continuous difficult labour-market situation. In Ghana, growth was estimated to fall by 2.6 percentage point to 4.5 per cent, mainly driven by exchange rate and inflationary pressure resulting from large macroeconomic imbalances. Similar macro imbalances affected the Zambian economy where growth was estimated to decrease to 6.5 per cent, from 6.7 per cent in 2013. The South Sudanese economy was projected to contract massively by 12.3 per cent, mainly driven by political tensions and the deteriorating security situations. Inflation
In advanced economies inflation was projected to peak modestly in 2014 as a result of the gradual recovery of the Euro-Zone and changing monetary conditions, especially in the U.S where the inflation rate was projected to rise towards the Federal Reserve long-term interest rate of 2 per cent. In the emerging and developing economies, inflation was estimated to experience a reduced rate of 5.5 per cent in 2014 down from 5.9 per cent in 2013 as a result of falling commodity prices, specifically food commodities, which have larger weighted portion of the consumers' prices index basket in these countries. During the period under review, consumer prices for advanced economies were estimated at 1.6 per cent, while inflation remained peaked in CIS at 7.9 per cent but moderating in the MENA (7.5 per cent) and SSA (6.7 per cent) regions. The global unemployment trends in 2014 was estimated at 6.1 per cent, a modest change from the figure recorded in 2013, but still above the rate of 5.5 per cent in 2007; the period of the global financial crisis. On similar note, the unemployment rate in Central and South Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS region remained unchanged at 6.6 per cent. However, there remain serious unemployment challenges in the Middle East and North Africa regions with estimated rates exceeding 12 per cent, while unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean was expected to remain broadly unchanged at 6.5 per cent, the same rate recorded for 2013. Figure 1: Global GDP Growth-Actual and Projections, 2006-2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P
World
Advanced Economies
Emerging & Developing Economies
Sub-Saharan Africa (RHS)
Source: IMF WEO Outlook, 2014 Unemployment rates in the rest of the regions were either expected to remain broadly unchanged for 2014 or slightly change. Unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa was estimated at 7.6 per cent in 2014, similar rate estimated for 2013. Global Commodity and Financial Market Developments
According to the IMF's Primary Commodity Price Index (PCPI), the global commodity prices have decreased by 13 per cent to 157.7 in 20141 compared to the 182.1 recorded in 2013 The decline was caused by 8 per cent decline in food prices due to improved supply projections and a 17 per cent drop in energy prices, especially petroleum products. Crude oil prices continues to decline despite geopolitical concerns regarding supply, and prices remain well below the average price of aboutUS$104 a barrel since the start of 2011 to US$86.1 per barrel at end October 2014. Effect of the disruption of crude oil supply in past years reached a total of 3 million barrels a day (mbd), with the largest leakages in Iraq, Libya, and Syria and recently the Islamic Republic of Iran as a result of sanctions placed. Other disruptions have emerged from both technical (Canada and the North Sea) and geopolitical (South Sudan) factors. In the proceeding discussions, we focus on development in the markets of key commodities whose price changes impact the Liberian economy. 1 Data from the WEO covers the period up to October 2014. Crude oil
Recent development in global oil market has triggered increased production in North America which has affected global oil trade flows. The U.S net oil imports have dropped from 12.5 mbd in 2005 to 5.5 mbd in 2014. As a result of increased production in North America and the reduced import from the United States the world oil market has experienced price slums, which is negatively impacting net oil importing countries but positively impacting net oil importers like Liberia. Iron-ore and Rubber
In the non-fuel commodity market, average iron ore prices dropped fromUS$134.9 to US$98.6 per Metric Ton (MT) in 2014, a 27 per cent fall compared to the price recorded in 2013. Similar downward trend in prices affected the international rubber market as prices fell on the by 22 per cent in 2014 from the US114.6 cents per pound a year earlier to about US89 cent per pound. The fall in the prices of iron ore and rubber affected not only the balance-of-payment position of the country, but also affected it's fiscal position as Government derived substantial amount of its annual revenue from trade in these commodities. For rubber, especially, local farmers were hardest hit as the prevailing market prices could not enable them meet the operational cost of their farms. The trickle-down effect was a reduction in the workforce on private farms which resulted into an increase in the unemployment figure in the country. Overall, the falling prices of global commodities reflect the weakened demand and increase supply from both Advanced, emerging & developing economies despite geospatial conflicts or political interest. Global Financial Market Development
According to the Global Financial Stability Report released in October 2014, the global financial systems remain fragile as the advanced economy continues to heavily rely on accommodative monetary policy and not taking steps towards well designed macro-prudential measures to improve balance between economic and financial risk taking. Amidst all of the challenges, shadow banking continues to surface, with even larger contribution to risk in the United States than in Europe. Moreover, there are challenges ahead if policies do not seek to circumvent the risky mood. Fiscal Policy Development
In 2014, many economies made significant strides towards better fiscal adjustments according to the IMF fiscal monitor Update (October 2014). Advanced economies continued efforts to balancing deficit reduction at the same time advancing every effort to supporting employment and growth. In advanced economies, fiscal deficit was estimated at 3.9 per cent of GDP, a 0.4 percentage point improvement compared to 2013. Similar trend was estimated for emerging markets and middle-income countries, where fiscal deficit in 2014 was projected to be 1.9 per cent of GDP, an improvement of 0.5 percentage point compared to the year earlier. Low-income countries fiscal deficit was estimated to remain broadly unchanged at 3.2 per cent of GDP in 2014. 3. DOMEST IC ECO NOMIC DE VELO PMENT
3.1 Economic Challenges
The Liberian economy came under tremendous pressure in 2014 from the worst ever outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease which threatened and nearly paralyzed the flourishing social and economic progress made since 2006. Having sustained an average real growth of approximately 7.5 per cent since 2006, the economy contracted to about negative 0.4 per cent at the end of the third quarter of 2014. During the heat of the Ebola crisis in July 2014, the Government of Liberia imposed a curfew, declared a state of emergence accompanied by the declaration of more than 60 percent of the workforce in the public sector as "non-essential". Furthermore, as the epidemic spread, most foreign expatriates and employees of most of the concessions operating in the country had to leave for safety reasons thus further exacerbating the impact of the EVD crisis on the economy. In what follows, we highlight some of the immediate impacts of the EVD on the economy as well as the general performance of the economy for the period under review. The adverse impacts of the outbreak on the economy are also reflected in job losses, contraction in domestic revenue, risk-aversion behaviour of investors, and low outputs in both agricultural and manufacturing sectors. This could potentially reverse the progress made thus far towards achieving the MDGs, especially, poverty, food security, child and maternal health. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal impact of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD)

The Ebola crisis did not only weaken government capacity to ideally generate revenue but also
imposed additional pressure on public expenditure. The revenue reduction mainly resulted from
a slump in economic activities with trickle-down effects on employment and by extension, a
shrinking of the tax base. In addition, Government revenues from tariff and customs from major
sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, mining and services also became threatened by risk
aversion behaviour of investors and consumers, and restrictions on movement. These actions led
to a loss of more than 20 percent of projected Government revenue for fiscal year 2014-2015,
with extended impacts on fiscal year 2015-2016.
As Government revenue generating capacity shrunk, expenditure demand increased. The rising
expenditure demand was associated with maintaining stability in the health sector, creating
awareness and sensitization, proving sanitation materials and logistics and supplies for health
service delivery as well as providing incentives and other benefits for healthcare workers.
While donors and other friendly contributed immensely to the cost of fighting the Ebola virus disease, Government had to initially commit US$20 million from the national budget to address the crisis. The deterioration in the fiscal position of Government was accompanied by reduced activities in the real sector of the economy. The hospitality industry which is an important source of Government revenue became one of the industries initially highly hit by the outbreak. Average hotel occupancy dropped from over 70 per cent before the crisis to 30 per cent as at September. At the same time, weekly commercial flight dropped from 27 between January and August 2014 to only 6 from the beginning of September 2014. In addition, inflight visitors in 2014 dropped significantly by 91 per cent to 3,500 persons, compared to the 39,118 admitted in the country in 2013. Since government taxes are collected on the number of occupancy, the reduction in these activities signal significant loss of revenues. While the influx of expatriates in response to the crisis may have restored some levels of normalcy to the industry, what remains of concern is maintaining the health of the sector when the expats shall have returned after the declaration of the country as Ebola-free. Another sector hard hit by the crisis in 2014 was agriculture. The disruption of agriculture and fisheries activities which contribute about 26 per cent of GDP greatly impacted exports earnings. The production and shipment of rubber, the single most important agricultural export commodity was greatly affected due to disruptions in smallholder farming activities, and difficulties in getting produce from quarantine zones to the port for shipment. Activities in the mining sector which is largely driven by iron ore exploitation by China Union and Arcelor Mittal and contributes significantly to revenue generation, were disrupted due to expatriate repatriation and travel restriction placed as a result of the Ebola outbreak. In 2013, the sector accounted for 17 per cent of GDP and 56 per cent of total exports (US$559 million). In 2014, however, reduction in export earnings due to a fall in iron-ore price on the international markets from US$134.9 per metric ton in 2013 to US$98.6 per metric ton inadvertently impacted domestic revenue mobilization. Thus, growth in the sector was estimated to have decline in 2014 from an earlier 4.3per cent projection to about 0.1 per cent in real terms. The contraction can be mainly attributed to reduced concession activities accompanied by the delay in phase 2 expansion work by the largest iron ore concession, Arcelor Mittal. 3.3Labor Market
According to estimates from the Ministry of Labour and the ILO econometric model (2014), the total number of work force in the three sectors of the Liberian economy was estimated total of 1.5 million in 2014 (see Table 3).This represents a 3 per cent increase compared to estimates for 2013. Of the total employment, the agriculture sector is estimated to have accounted for 45 per cent, followed by the services and industry sectors with 44 per cent and at 11 per cent respectively. Compared to 2013, employment created by the agriculture, services and industry represent increases of about 2 per cent, 4 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively. As evident from Table 3, employment in the economy is gradually trending towards gender balance as female workforce participation rate is estimated at 47 per cent in 2014. The Ministry of Finance & Development Planning has initiated collaboration with the Ministry of Labour to undertake a more robust method of tracking employment through enforced labour inspection and monitoring on a regular basis to ensure better understanding of the structure of the labour market of the country. Table 3: Employment by Sector and Gender
Employment by Sector & Gender ('000') MoL, ILO and Author's calculation 2014 3.3.1 Inflation

Figure 2 indicates annual inflation rates in Liberia from 2006 to 2014, including projection for
2015. The graph shows that inflation peaked as high as 17 per cent for the period 2007 -2008as a
result of the global financial and food crises and rising energy prices. As global commodity
prices stabilized following the crisis, inflation moderated and remained in single digits between
2009 and 2013.
Figure 2: Annual Inflation, 2006-2015

Inflation
t 12
rcen 10
n pe
IMF Report, 2014
However, compared to 2013, monthly inflation rates observed greater fluctuations and began
rising to double digits in 2014 (See Figure 3). This was preceded by rising prices of essential
commodities such as food and energy as well as volatility in the exchange rate. Furthermore, as
the domestic market came under tremendous pressure as the EVD epidemic created panic among
consumers and the business community between June and October, when the crisis was at its
peak, inflation begin rising and peaked at around 13.5 percent at end-September before
moderating to single digit at end-December 2014, and it is expected to remain single digit in
2015. This followed concerted efforts made by fiscal and monetary authorities in collaboration
with the business community to ensure macroeconomic stability.
Figure 3: Monthly Inflation, 2013-2014
Monthly Rate of Inflation
Source: Central Bank of Liberia 3.4 Public Financial Management Reforms
The Public Financial Management (PFM) system continues to progress positively. There forms continue to enhance improved fiscal sanity both in an effective and efficient manner. Achievements as a result of sound PFM over the years include:  The completion, approval and subsequent implementation of the Medium Term Debt Strategy for prudent debt management;  The establishment of effective internal audit functions in 37 Line Ministries & Agencies (M & A's) covering approximately 86 per cent of the national budget;  The deployment of SIGTAS (revenue collection system) in the small, medium and large tax units to strengthen tax compliance and to calculate withholding and corporate income tax liabilities; enhance service delivery and quality of customer records; provide access to a variety of online Government services such as filing of returns and payments, appointment scheduling and a reduced tax compliance cost;  The enactment of the Liberia Revenue Authority (LRA) Act and the subsequent operationalization of the new agency on 1 July 2014, marking the official separation and independence of the tax collection functions from the tax policy functions of the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning (MFDP);  The completion of the review of the backlog of audit reports by the Parliamentary Account Committee, which has enhanced legislative scrutiny of government performance;  The development and implementation of the human resources (HR) management module at the Civil Service Agency for personnel management and payroll processing. All Liberian dollar salary payments (with the exception of the pension payroll) are now captured, printed and paid from the HR management system; and  The roll out of IFMIS to 19 M&As, which has helped improve budget execution, timely reporting and enhanced compliance with basic controls, IFMIS is also assisting in standardizing financial documentation and consolidation of financial reports. 4. REAL SECTO R DEVEL O PMENT
The real sector is the part of the economy that is concerned with the actual production of goods and services through the combined utilization of raw materials and other factors of production such as labour force, land and capital. The sector comprises of two major markets: the factor market, which includes labour, land and capital markets, and the product market, where business operators manage the utilization of production factors to produce services as well as outputs from the agricultural and manufacturing industries so as to promote growth in gross domestic product. In the sections that follow, we focus on the performance of the real sector of the economy for the period under review. 4.1 Overall GDP Performance
Figure 4 illustrates the trend in real GDP growth between 2006 and 2014. The figure indicates a strong growth performance since 2006 with growth averaging around 7 percent year-on-year from 2006 to 2013. During 2014, however, Liberia's gross domestic product, the combined output of economic activities valued in monetary terms at the prevailing market rates, declined from an 8.7 percent real growth in 2013 to 0.3 per cent. The decline was a result of massive deceleration of economic activities following the deadly Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in early March 2014. As a result of the disease outbreak, real GDP was revised downward four times from the original initial projected rate of 5.9 per cent to 2.5 per cent, 1.0 per cent, negative 0.4percent and finally to 0.3percent at end December 2014.The changing outlooks reflect the worsening impact of the EVD epidemic on the economy.
Figure 4: Overall GDP Performance, 2006-2014
Real GDP Growth Rate
Source: GOL and IMF Estimates As the epidemic worsened, the three key sectors of the economy sector—mining, agriculture and service became hard-hit, and commercial activities weakened. Furthermore, with declining prices of the main outputs of the agriculture and mining industries coupled with the impact of the EVD outbreak, most of the gains made in GDP growth over the years were placed at risk, and the economy declined substantially. 4.2 Sectoral GDP Contributions and Performance
Before the resuscitation of the mining sector in 2010, the services and agriculture sectors were the largest contributors to national output. Their combined shares constituted over 95 percent of GDP in 2010. However, with the recommencement of mining activities by the two major iron ore concessions—Arcelor Mittal and China Union, the share of mining has been rising over time—even though agriculture and services remain the most dominant contributors to GDP. However, as the EVD crisis hit the entire economy, the services sector became one of the severely hit sectors. Construction services as well as services provided by the hospitality industry were disrupted during the heat of the crisis. For instance, average hotel occupancy rate dropped from over 70 per cent before the crisis to 30 per cent by end September. At the same time, with the suspension of flights to Liberia by major continental and regional airlines, weekly commercial flights dropped from 27 between January and August 2014 to only 6 from the beginning of September 2014. In addition, in-flight visitors in 2014 dropped significantly by 91 per cent to 3,500 persons, compared to the 39,118 admitted in the country in 2013. Inspite of the decline in activities in the services sector, it contributed 51.5 per cent to GDP in
2014, the highest compared to the rest of the sectors2. Agriculture, mining and manufacturing
contributed 33.5 percent, 10.7 percent and 4.3percent, respectively (See figure 5)3. Despite the
significant contribution of agriculture to export earnings, productivity in the sector has been quite
low and does not commensurate with its share of the labor market. Figure 5 shows the sector
shares of the four major sectors of the economy to GDP for the period2010-2014. In the sections
that follow, we discuss the performance of the various sectors of the economy for the period
under review.
Figure 5: Sector Contribution to GDP, 2010-2016
Source: CBL, LISGIS, IMF 2014 4.2.1 Agriculture and Forestry
Even though the share of agriculture in gross domestic output has been declining in recent years, it remains an integral part of economic activities for a vast majority of rural households. Agricultural activities employ over 70 per cent of rural households, and over 50 per cent of workforce in the formal sector. While its contribution to employment creation remains high, growth in its output has witnessed decline in the last two years. In 2014, agricultural and fisheries output contracted by 2.9 per cent, a further fall from a 0.3 contraction in 2013.The contraction in the output of the sector is mainly due to the decline in cash crop and food crop production for the period under consideration. 2The large share of the services sector reflects the increasing role of aid monies and expatriate services in the Liberian economy. 3 Agriculture share include contributions from agricultural, fisheries and forestry activities For instance, except for oil palm which experienced 50 per cent real growth in 2014 (though down from 110.8 per cent in 2013), the output of all other commodities in the sector either remained unchanged or contracted in 2014. Rubber, the dominant cash crop produced in Liberia, experienced no growth for the period, after a-20 per cent contraction in 2013, while coffee output experienced no growth in 2014 aftera-3 per cent expansion in 2013. Cocoa output maintained the same contraction of 7 per cent experienced in 2013. In addition, outputs of the main food commodities, rice and cassava which experience 3 per cent growth each in 2013, contracted by 6 per cent each in 2014 as the EVD epidemic hit the main food production counties during the height of the production season. The forestry sub-sector also experienced negative growth in 2014. With 0.5 per cent growth in 2013, output of the sector contracted by 2 per cent in 2014 as a result of suspended activities in the sector due to the Ebola outbreak. In the face of the EVD crisis, timber production and logging which mark the key activities in the forestry sector, contracted by 2 per cent along with other activities in the sector. In terms of performance in revenue generation, the overall contribution of the agriculture sector has increased by about 5 per cent between FY 2011/2012 and FY 2014/2015 with individual lines reflecting major changes. For instance, taxes on agricultural exports between the two period decreased by 41 per cent, while surface rental, the major line item in the category increased by 44 per cent4. 4.2.2 Industry and Manufacturing
The manufacturing sector was one of the hard-hit sectors of the economy in 2014. Having grown by about 9.2 per cent in 2013, manufacturing activities contracted by 0.7 percent in 2014. The growth rate of the key component of activities—cement production—declined from 25 percent growth in 2013 to 15 percent in 2014 as major construction activities came to a halt due to the Ebola epidemic. Also, major beverages and beer productions also contracted by 5 percent in 2014 from a 6 percent expansion in the previous year, while the production of the other beverages contracted by 1 percent after a 3-percent growth in the previous year. As a result of declining activities in the hospitality industry, the production of beer especially decreased by over 21 per cent in the third quarter of 2014. However, as the country observed hygienic measures to fight the deadly Ebola virus disease, some industries seem to have indirectly benefited from the crisis. For instance, the production of detergents and plastic material increased significantly in 2014 due to the increase demand for their use in the fight against the infectious disease. 4Annual Fiscal Outturn Report, 2013/2014 While the Ebola crisis affected the performance of the manufacturing industry in 2014, other macroeconomic conditions hinder its rapid expansion. Key among these factors is the high cost and limited supply of electricity generated by the national power grid. The high cost of energy in the economy is adversely affecting profitability of the industrial sector and limiting its ability to expand. It is thus expected that the completion of the Mount Coffee hydroelectric power dam would remove this major constraint to industrial development thus increasing manufacturing activities at a lower cost and expanding its share in the gross national output. 4.2.3Mining
As an enclave economy, mining remains the dominant source of foreign exchange earnings. Since 2006, investment in this sector has attracted more than US$7.0 billion and remains one of the stable sources of Government revenue generation, especially one-off payment on the budget. Since 2010, iron-ore production on a 12-month rolling basis is value at approximately US$7.4 billion. However, in 2014, growth in the sector which is largely driven by iron ore exploitation, declined to about 0.1 per cent from about 50 per cent growth in 2013. The moderate growth performance was driven mainly by increased production of diamond and other precious metals (particularly gold). Iron ore production contracted from a growth rate of 56.8 percent in 2013 to about negative 0.3 per cent in 2014. The contraction was mainly due to reduced concession activities due to Ebola epidemic, accompanied by the delay in phase 2expansion work by the largest iron ore concession, Arcelor Mittal. 4.2.4 Services
The services sector remains the most dominant in the Liberian economy, contributing over 51 percent of real GDP in 2014. However, like other sectors of the economy, its growth was severely affected by the Ebola epidemic in 2014. Initially projected to have grown by about 8 percent, the sector recorded a growth of just about 3 percent in 2014, down from 7.2 percent in the previous year. The decline in growth was a result of declines in nearly all service-delivery activities in the economy in 2014. Except for electricity and water delivery services which grew by about 10 percent in 2014 compared to about 6 percent growth in 2013, the provision of key services such as trade and hotels, construction, transportation and communication, financial and Government services either decline or contracted from its 2013 performance. For instance, growth in transportation and communication services declined from 7.1 percent in 2013 to 2 percent in 2014, while financial service contracted from 3 percent growth in 2013 to negative 1 percent in 2014 (see Table 5). Hotels and restaurants, travel, and transportation services were seriously affected by the departure of expatriates, the suspension of flights by some regional and international airlines, the closure of markets and regional borders and travel restrictions during the third quarter of the year as the outbreak of the virus reached its peak.
However, as the global community began to exert concerted efforts to combat the disease,
activities in the service sector began to pick during the last quarter of the year, resulting to the
moderate growth achieved by the sector.
Table 4: Growth rate of Service sector, 2013-2014 (in percent)
Services
Electricity & water Construction related to iron ore Trade, hotels, etc Transportation & communication Transport related to iron ore Financial institutions Government services Source: GOL and IMF Estimates, 2014 5. MONET ARY DE VELO PM E NT
The Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) has the statutory responsibility to promote price level stability in the economy. As the key authority in the monetary sector, it is also responsible for maintaining a sound monetary policy strategy with the overarching goal of achieving price stability. It also has the mandate to maintain constant regulatory surveillance and prudential control over the domestic financial sector. In maintaining a stable macroeconomic condition, it seeks to have internal and external equilibrium that will spur a stable exchange rate and interest rate that promote economic growth. For the period under review, we highlight the key indicators that underpin developments in the monetary sector. 5.1 Monetary Indicators
The CBL continues to focus its monetary policy on the achievement of exchange rate and price stability within the economy. However, the dollarized nature of the economy continues to pose significant challenges to the formulation and effective implementation of monetary policy. With the existence of dual currency in the economy, the CBL's foreign exchange interventions to maintain exchange rate stability influence monetary indicators in the economy. In 2014, for example, collaborations between the fiscal and monetary authorities to ameliorate the impacts of the EVD crisis on exchange rate resulted into increased foreign exchange interventions which placed tremendous pressure on the foreign reserve position of the country. In an effort to stabilize the exchange rate in order to achieve price level stability, the Government direct foreign-exchange-market intervention amounted to about US$54 million in 2014. An additional US$19 million was used through T-bill issuance to sterilize about 1.6 billion Liberian dollars in the economy. The increased interventions resulted into a 5 per cent decline in the foreign reserve of the country from January to December 2014. That is, the Central Bank of Liberia official international reserves declined from about US$239.9 million at end January to about US$227.9 million as at end December 2014 (See Figure 6). Figure 6: CBL Net Foreign Exchange position, Jan-Dec., 2014
Net Foreign Reserve
Millions of US$ 239.9 228.4 233.0 232.4 238.4 241.4 229.0 213.5 214.2 225.0 221.5 227.9 Source: CBL, 2014 5.2 Monetary Aggregates
5.2.1 Liberian dollar in Circulation
Liberian dollars in circulation as at end of December2014 totalled L$9,367.6 million, representing a decrease of 1.1 percent over the same period in 2013. The decrease in the circulation of Liberian dollars is attributable to a 15.7percentdecline in currency inside the banking system accompanied by a 1.1 per cent increase in currency outside the banking system for the same period. At end December 2014, Liberian dollars inside the banking system amounted to L$1,008.6 million compared to L$1,196.2 million for the same period in 2013, while currency outside the system amounted to L$8,359 million at end December, slightly above the amount outside the banking system at end December 2013 (Table 5). With respect to inter-quarter changes in currency in circulation in 2014, the third quarter witnessed a 4.3 per cent decrease following an increase of about 2.4 per cent from quarter one to quarter two. At the end of quarter four, however, the Liberian dollars in circulation increased by 8.4 per cent. The increase in the volume of currency in circulation was due to a 42.7 per cent decrease in currency in the banks accompanied by a 21 per cent increase in Liberian dollars outside the banking system. Table 5: LRD Currency in Circulation, 2013-2014
Table 5: LRD Currency in Circulation, 2013-2014
Liberian dollar currency in Circulation
(All figure are in Liberian dollars unless otherwise indicated) L$ Outside
End of period
L$ in Banks
(in Millions of Liberian dollar) Year-on-Year Quarterly Changes Inter-Quarter Percentage Changes Quarter 1Quarter 2 Source: Central Bank of Liberia 5.2.2 Money Supply (M1) and Broad Money (M2)
The Money supply (M1) increased by 21.6 per cent from L$30,132.1 million at end December 2013 to L$36,634.5 million at end of December 2014. The growth in money supply was driven mainly by an expansion of currency deposits in the economy. Total Liberian dollar deposits grew by about 21 per cent, while demand deposits expanded by about 23.8 per cent from end-December 2013 to end-December 2014 (see Table 6). For the same period, broad Money (M2) which measures the overall liquidity in the banking system increased by about 20percent from L$44,742.4 million at end-December 2013 to L$53,696.9 million at end-December 2014. The main driver of growth in broad money is quasi money which grew by 16.8percent mainly as a result of about 28percent increase in time and saving deposits. Table 6: Monetary Aggregate, 2013-2014
Liberia Monetary Survey and Aggregate, Q1 2013-Q4 2014
Q4 2013/Q4
(In millions of liberian dollars; end of period) Net Foreign Assets
Banking Institutions Net Domestic Assets
Claims on government (net) Claims on private sector other public sector (net) Claims on private sector Other items net (assets +) Broad Money (M2) Money Supply (Liberian dollar M1) Currency outside bank Total Liberian dollar deposits US dollars savings deposits Liberian dollars time and savings deposits Quasi Money
Time and savings deposits US dollars savings deposits Liberian dollars time and savings deposits (in millions of U.S. dollars) (in millions of Liberian dollars) 5.3 Exchange Rate Development
The exchange rate between the Liberian dollar and the United States dollar came under immense pressure during the first half of the year. At end-June, 2014, the average exchange rate stood at L$89.22 per US$1.00 up from L$75.33 per US$1.00 at end-June 2013 (see Table 7).This indicates over 15 percent depreciation in the value of the Liberian dollars from June 2013 to June 2014. Also comparing inter-quarter exchange rate movements, the Liberian dollar depreciated by about 5.4 percent from end of quarter one to end of quarter two. The depreciation of the Liberian dollar against the US dollars can be attributed to high demand for foreign exchange to service import payments in the economy, reduction in CBL intervention in the foreign exchange market, and increase in Government Liberian dollar expenditure. Another important contributor was the relative increase in the strength of the United States dollar, which impacted not only Liberia but also a number of other low-income countries and emerging markets, including South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana. The immense depreciation in the value of the Liberian dollars triggered consolidated efforts by monetary and fiscal authorities to maintain exchange rate and macroeconomic stabilities. As a result of intense collaboration between the relevant institutions of Government and private-sector players, the exchange rate saw a relative decline in the last half of 2014. End-of-period
comparison shows the Liberian dollar appreciated by about 5.6 per cent from L$89.22 per
US$1.00 at end of quarter two toL$84.5per US$1 at end quarter three, 2014. By end-December
2014, the Liberian dollar had appreciated by about 2.3 per cent from L$84.38 per US$1.00 at end
of quarter one to L$82.50per US$1.00 at end of quarter four—the same exchange rate recorded
at the end of quarter four in 2013.
Table 7: Mid-Market Exchange Rate, 2012-2014
Mid-Marke t Exchange Rate s : L$ price pe r US$
(All figure are in Liberian dollars unless otherwise indicated) End of pe riod
Pe riod Ave rage
Quarter 1
Percentage Change End of Pe riod
Quarter 1
Pe riod Ave rage
Source: Central bank of Liberia 5.3.1 Forex Exchange Auction
The CBL continued its regular intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the exchange rate in 2014. As at end December, CBL foreign exchange market intervention amounted to about US$53.9 million. However, compared to previous years, amount respectively reflects 24 per cent and 25 per cent reductions in 2012 and2013 interventions (see Table 8). As the CBL reduced interventions partly in response to IMF requirement to accumulate foreign reserves, the Liberian dollars came under extreme pressure in 2014. Table 8: CBL Foreign Exchange Market Intervention (US million), 2012-2014
Source: Central Bank of Liberia As the Liberian dollar depreciated against the US Dollars, especially at end-June 2014, the CBL increased its auction in July to curb the escalating exchange rate. This resulted to about a 9.4 percent appreciation of the Liberian dollars from end-June to end-July 2014, and the exchange rate remained moderately stable for the second half of the year (see Figure7).As the exchange rate stabilized due to foreign exchange market interventions, the net foreign reserve position of the Government deteriorated as depicted in figure 5. Figure 7: Movements in Exchange Rate and Foreign Exchange Auction, 2014
an 82
xch 80
Source: Central Bank of Liberia 5.4 Bank Lending and Interest Rates
The year 2014 witnessed an increase in bank lending to the private sector in spite of the tremendous pressure the economy underwent as a result of the Ebola epidemic. Credit to all sectors increased and more than doubled for some, while lending rates were relatively lower at end-December 2014 compared to the same period in 2013. The proceeding discussions focus on performance of the credit market for the period under review. 5.4.1 Commercial Bank Credits
Total lending to the sectors of the economy grew by 89 per cent from end-December 2013 to end-December 2014. The largest growth in commercial bank credits was experienced by the construction sector whose total credit more than doubled from L$9.2billion in 2013 to L$21.3 billion at end-December 2014, followed by credit to the agriculture sector with growth of over 112 per cent for the same period. Credits to the manufacturing sector increased by 98 per cent year-on-year, while credits to hospitality industry5and transportation respectively increased by 94 per cent and 86 per cent between 2013 and 2014 (see Table 9). Credit growth in key economic sectors such as reconstruction, agriculture transportation and communication was driven partly by Government-initiated private-sector development and agriculture stimulus packages whose implementations increased in 2014. It also indicates deepening of the financial sector as well as expansion of economic activities in the country. Table 9: Commercial Bank Loans to Economic Sector, 2013-2014
(All figure are in Liberian ollars unless otherwise indicated) Total Loan
Total Loan
per sector 2013
per sector 2014
Year on Year
(in Millions of Liberian dollar) 643.1 1,105.0 1,337.0 1,498.8 4,583.9 1,782.1 1,154.8 1,810.4 1,869.2 9,734.0 Mining & Quarrying 231.6 170.1 84.9 100.3 586.9 134.4 125.0 130.0 177.2 998.9 346.4 376.4 378.9 371.9 1,473.6 545.0 581.3 647.9 526.9 2,917.5 1,319.7 2,216.1 2,774.7 2,933.6 9,244.1 4,419.2 4,606.4 4,635.7 4,727.7 21,324.7 1,747.7 1,363.4 2,322.4 2,274.1 7,707.6 2,394.5 2,465.2 2,338.8 2,032.3 14,408.5 Trade,Hotel and Restaurant 7,452.8 9,867.0 9,799.2 10,860.9 37,979.9 12,788.1 12,820.2 12,254.3 12,039.1 73,668.0 5,726.2 7,933.0 8,865.0 9,133.7 31,657.9 6,212.7 7,788.9 6,168.4 6,127.2 53,131.5 17,467.5 23,031.0 25,562.1 27,173.4 93,233.9 28,276.02 29,541.78 27,985.5 27,499.6 176,182.9
Source: Central Bank of Liberia 5.4.2 Interest Rate
Average lending rate in 2014 decreased by 0.9 per cent to 13.60 per cent, compared to 13.73 per cent realized in 2013.Deposit rate increased by about 0.5 per cent. However, interest on business loan increased by 0.6 per cent for the period, which interest rate on personal loan grew by 0.9 per cent year-on-year. Mortgage loan experienced the highest interest rate at 14.20percent at end of 2014. Comparing the quarterly performance of the lending rates in 2014, business loan rate decreased from quarter one to quarter two but moderately increased at the end of quarter four (see Table 10). Between 2013 and 2014, average time deposit rate increased by 22.2 per cent, while saving deposit rate also increased by 0.5percent. 5Hospitality industry here refers to trade, hotel and restaurant services.
Table 10: Commercial Bank Interest Rate, 2013-2014
Commercial Bank Rates
Year on Year,Quarterly Percentage
Change-2014 over 2013
Average Lending Rate Average Personal Loan Rate Average Mortgage Rate Average Time Deposit Rate Average Saving Deposit Rate Other Market Rates
Average Rate on CD'S Source: Central Bank of Liberia 6. FISCAL DEVEL O PME N T
6.1 Fiscal Overview
The National Legislature approved a resource envelop of US$635.2 million for FY2014/15, which is about 9 percent above the US$582.9 million approved for FY2013/14. As a result of the unprecedented health crisis that erupted and intensified during the first quarter of the fiscal year, the approved national budget was revised from an initial estimate of US$559.35 million submitted to the National Legislature. As the Government struggled to keep the implementation of its development agenda on course as well as meet unplanned expenditure demands emanating from the epidemic, it instituted austerity measures to curb Government expenditure and release already-limited resources for priority spending. These measures included a drastic reduction in the purchase of non-essential items such as vehicles, furniture, futures, office supplies, etc; a 40 per cent reduction in foreign travel across the Government and a 25 percent reduction in expenditure on the cost of fuel and lubricants across Government entities. These austerity measures resulted into a US$33 million reduction in additional spending pressure created by the EVD epidemic, and enabled government increase spending on priority areas. These priorities included spending on social welfare services such as feeding of patients at hospitals, clinics, treatment (isolation) centres, etc., as well as providing safe drinking water and sanitary supplies to quarantined communities. Moreover, the Government continue to prioritized the payment of compensation to all public employees during 2014, despite the fiscal imbalances. In the sections that follow, we discuss budgetary execution with specific focus on the first half of FY2014/2014. 6.1.1 Appropriation
The National Legislature approved an appropriation of US$635.2 million for FY2014/2015. Of the approved national budget, compensation for employees accounts forUS$244.99 million (38 per cent), followed by the use of goods and services, US$175.66 million (28 percent).Grants to other Government entities constitutes US$168.20 million(26 percent), followed by Public Sector Investment Plan, US$114.40 million (18 percent), interest and loan repayment, US$9.52 million (1.5 percent), consumption of fixed capital, US$2.77 million (0.4 per cent), and social benefit, US$1.71 million (0.3 percent) (see Table 11).
Table 11: Economic Classification, FY 2013-2015
Source: MFDP, 2014 In terms of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) sectoral classification, Public Administration accounts for the largest share of budget, constituting US$235.11 million (37 per cent) of the resource envelope. This is followed by Security and Rule of Law, US$83.64 million (13 percent), Health, US$78.51 million (12 per cent), Education, US$65.29 million (10 percent), Infrastructure and Basic services, US$55.06 million (9 percent), Transparency and Accountability, US$31.35 million (5 percent), Municipal Government, US$31.72 million (5 percent), Energy and Environment US$23.61 million(4 percent), Industry and Commerce, US$15.22 million (2 percent), Social Development services, US$9.80 million (1.5 per cent), and agriculture, US$5.93 million (1 percent). Figure 8: Sectoral Distribution of the National Budget, FY 2013-2015
Source: MFDP, 2014 6.1.2 Revenue
For FY2014/2015, the Government of Liberia expects to generate total revenue of US$635.2 million. Of the total projected revenue envelope, core revenue accounts for US$460 million or 72.54 per cent, while borrowings and contingent revenues account for US$65.80 million and US$108.64 million, respectively (see Figure 8). Projected domestic revenue for FY2014/15 decreased by 10.4 per cent to US$467.5 million, from US$521.6 million recorded in FY 2013/14. The decline in domestic revenue generation is due to declines in various tax kinds and other administrative fees and charges from various sectors of the economy that are hardest hit by the Ebola crises. The core revenue envelope comprised of tax revenue US$339.17 million (73.61 percent), non-tax revenue US$62.6 million (13.58 million) and grants US$59.06 million (12.81 percent). Of the total FY2014/2015core revenue, tax revenue declined by 21.81 percent to US$339.17 million from US$433.8 million realized for FY2013/14. Of the total tax revenue for FY2014/2015, taxes on incomes and profits constitute about US$149.46 million or 44.07 percent, a decrease by 13.66 percent compared to US$173.1 million realized for FY2013/14. Revenue from taxes on international trade is estimated at US$126.58 million or 37.32 percent of the total tax revenue. Compared to the US$170.2 million realized in FY2013/14, revenue from international trade in FY2014/2015 declined by 25.63 percent. Taxes on goods and services are estimated at US$45.42 million or 13.39 percent - a 37.09 percent decline in comparison to US$72.2 million recorded for the previous fiscal year. For FY 2014/15, Non tax revenue also declined by 28.82 per cent to US$62.57 million, from US$87.9 million recorded for FY2013/14. Property income tax accounted for a significant portion of non-tax revenues. This tax kind decline by 15.93 per cent to US$51.2 million, from the US$60.9 million recorded in FY2013/14. Figure 9: Total Revenue, FY 2013-2015
Source: MFDP, 2014 In terms of revenue performance for the first half of the fiscal year, tax and non-tax revenues over-performed, while grants and borrowing underperformed. Tax revenue collected increased by 5.58 percent to US$179.44 million against the projected revenue of US$169.95 million. The over performance of tax revenue can be attributed to the higher-than-expected performances of taxes on international trade (14.72 percent) and taxes on income and profit (4.45 percent). Non-tax revenue also increased by 14.09 percent, while on-budget support declined by 21.32 percent against projection (see Figure 10). The departure of expatriates as a result of the EVD affected revenue collection on non-resident income tax. Figure 10: Actual Revenue vs Projection, Jan-Dec. 2014
Actual vs Projected Revenue (Jul-Dec) FY2014/15
200.00 180.00 160.00 Source: LRA & MFDP, 2014 6.1.3 Expenditure
The implementation of FY2014/2015 budget marked the end of the first round of the country's first Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) budget. For the operation of Government in FY2014/2015, the National Legislature approved a budget of US$635.2 million, compared to a revenue outturn of US$517.1 million and total expenditure of US$530.6 million for FY 2013/2014. The execution of the budget during the first halfofFY2014/15 faced a number of challenges. Prominent among them is the slowdown in economic activities accompanied by increased spending pressure as a consequence of EVD outbreak. Consequently, as economic activities drastically declined, revenue collection also declined. This was further exacerbated by delays in the passage of the national budget thereby resulting into the activation of the 1/12th rule mainly to fund recurrent expenditures. The activation of the 1/12 rule entailed that implementation of PSIP projects would not begin on time since only recurrent activities could be funded. As such, Government expenditure for development-related activities for the period remained relatively low, even though total commitment for the period is higher compared to the same period of FY2013/2014. Figure 11: Expenditure by Commitment, Jul-Dec, 2014/15 and 2013/2014
Expenditure by Commitment (Jul - Dec) 2014/15
Source: MFDP, 2014 For the first half of FY2014/15, GoL total expenditure on commitment basis was US$263.48 against revenues collected US$297.21 million. This represents an execution rate of 88.65 percent for the period. The commitment figure indicates an increase of 18.5 percent from the US$222.40 million recorded at the end of the same period in FY2013/14.Ofthe first half FY 2014/15 expenditure, the GoL wage bill accounts for US$106.43 million (40.39 percent) of total expenditure—a 6.9 percent increase in employee compensation during the same period of FY2013/2014 (see Figure 10). The increase in the wage bill was driven primarily by the desire to prioritize salary payments for GoL employees including those at the frontline of the fight against the deadly Ebola virus. Use of goods and services accounted for the second largest expenditure for the first half of FY2014/15 in the amount of US$95.30 million, representing 36.17 percent of total expenditure. When compared to the same period in FY2013/14, the use of goods and services increased by 31.09 percent. The increase was driven by purchases of logistics and supplies associated with the fight against Ebola as well as for social welfare spending such as providing feeding for patients in hospitals as well as providing safe drinking and sanitary supplies for communities quarantined as a result of the outbreak. Comparing expenditure commitments for the various sectors of the economy for the same period in FY2013/14 and FY2014/2015, expenditure for the Infrastructure and Basic services, Transparency and Accountability and Health sectors increased by 193.14 percent, 49.15 percent and 25.33 percent, respectively, while expenditure for agriculture, Education, Energy and Environment, Industry and Commerce, Municipal Government, Public Administration, Security and Rule of Law and Social Development Services decreased by 15.60 percent, 10.78 percent, 9.79 percent, 24.03 percent, 13.48percent, 19.52 percent, 0.48 percent, 41.60 percent respectively Table 12: Expenditure by Sector, Jul-Dec. (FY 2013-2015)
Expenditure by Sector July to December Energy and Environment Industry and Commerce Infrastructure and Basic Services Municipal Government Public Administration Security and Rule of Law Social Development Services Transparency and Accountability Source: MFDP, 2014 6.2 Tax Expenditures
Tax expenditures are revenue losses attributable to tax provisions that often result from the use of the country's tax system to promote social goals without incurring direct expenditures. These losses result either duty waivers or exemptions through concessional agreement or policy changes. Tax exemption is consistent with the Government of Liberia's policy to promote private sector-led growth and it is aimed at creating an enabling environment and incentives for companies to invest and create jobs for its citizens. The policy decision also grant waiver to institutions to carry out their respective activities within the confines of the law or executive order. Tax exemptions are also intended to promote certain behaviours in line with Government policy as well as contribute to the development of targeted sectors to stimulate the economic growth and development. In 2014, total tax expenditure amounted to US$126.24 million, up from US$78.37 million incurred in 2013. The increase is driven mainly by increased waivers to concession companies from US$24.6 million recorded in 2013 to the US$57.34 million in 2014 and the Government ministries and agencies (see Table 13). Analysis shows a peak in tax expenditure in the month of August which also coincided with the peak in Ebola crisis. The increase GoL-M&As-related tax expenditure can be attributed to the huge importation of equipment related to the fight against the deadly Ebola virus disease (EVD). While tax waiver may be used to service Government intended purposes, it remains major drain on Government tax revenue, in the face of the narrow tax base. Table 13: Tax Expenditure (million US$), Jan-Dec, 2014
expenditures for 2014 CONCESSIONS AGREEMENT INVESTMENT INCENTIVE DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS GOL/MINISTRIES & AGENCIES INTERNATIONAL NGOs PUBLIC CORPORATION EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS NATIONAL LEGISLATORS MEDICAL INSTITUTION SHIP SPARE IN TRANSIT PETROLEUM PRODUCT AMENDMENT ACT 1708 EXECUTIVE ORDER # 45 8.75 7.42 12.22
9.67 6.43 10.70 20.16
9.02 8.70 12.53 13.39 126.24
7 EXTE RNAL SE CTOR DE VELO PME NT
7.1 Current Accounts
Liberia's current account deficit narrowed by about 27 percent in 2014, as evident by Table 14. The reduction in the current account deficit followed declines in merchandize and net income deficits as well as an over 60 percent growth in net current transfers for the period. Merchandize trade deficit declined by about 9.1 per cent as a result of declined imports payments on capital equipment, petroleum products and other non-consumables, while the improvement in net transfer was driven by increases in grants, private transfers, net worker's remittances and net public transfers. However, estimates of net services indicate about 35 percent deterioration from deficit of US$836.5 million recorded in 2013 to deficit of US$1127.8 million at the end of 2014. 7.2 Capital and Financial Accounts

Estimates of the Capital and financial account show a 10 per cent decrease in 2014 from
US$1,003.1 million recorded in 2013 to US$900 million recorded in 2014. For the period under
consideration, the financial account reduced by about 13 per cent while the capital account
expanded by 26 percent. The decline in financial accounts is associated with the about 49 percent
decline in direct investment, followed by a substantial reduction in other investment activities
during the Ebola crisis. However, the increased transfers of Ebola-related items played a key role
in closing some of the gaps in the capital and financial accounts.
Table 14: Balance of Payment Position, (million USD), 2011-2014
Current Account Balance
o/w Net Merchandise o/w Net Services o/w Net Income o/w Net Current Transfers Financial Account Capital and financial account
Source: Central Bank of Liberia 7.3 Merchandized Trade
7.3.1 Commodity Export
In 2014, total commodity export increased by about 0.03 per cent, from US$560.3 million in 2013 to US$577.6 million. Of the total export earnings in 2014, iron ore remains the dominant contributor, accounting for about 64.7 percent of export proceeds, followed by rubber which constitutes about 18 percent. The moderate increase in export earning was driven by a 15 percent in iron ore exports as well as a more-than doubling of the export revenue from diamonds and a 78 percent growth in export revenue from the sales of round logs (see Table 14). However, rubber, the second largest export commodity experienced about 20 percent decline in export earning followed by a 29.5 percent reduction in gold export compared to 2013. The decline in rubber export earning is attributed both to a declining rubber production as a result of aging rubber trees as well as an estimated 22 percent decline in international rubber price compared to 2013. Similarly, by end December 2014, the international price of iron ore had fallen by approximately 27 percent, mainly due to weakening demand from China. Table 15: Commodity Exports ('000 USD), 2009-2014
Exports - annual
Other Commodities Source: MOCI, CBL, 2014 7.3.2 Commodity Imports
Compared to the value recorded in 2013, total merchandize imports declined by 8.7 per cent in 2014. Petroleum products and Machinery and other equipment recorded the largest shares of total imports, each accounting for 23 per cent for the period. This is followed by food and live animals with about 14 percent, and manufactured products with 12 percent. Beverage and tobacco import constitutes 9 percent while imports of chemical and related products account for 8 percent of the total merchandize import. With respect to year-on-year comparison, mineral, fuel and lubricant (excluding petroleum product) increased by about 17 percent, followed by a 12 percent rise in the import of chemical and related products. However, animal and vegetable oil imports experienced the largest decline, falling by over 28 percent from 2013 compared to 2014. Food and live animal import also declined by about 18 percent, while imports of Machinery and transports equipment, manufactured products, and petroleum product decreased by 13 percent, 11.9 percent and 8.7 percent respectively (see Table 15). Table 16: Commodity Imports ('000 USD), 2009-2014
Imports - annual
Food and live animals Beverage and tobacco Mineral, Fuels, Lubricants Animal and vegetable oil Chemicals and related products Manufactured products Machinery & tpt. equip.
Petroleum products Miscellaneous manufactured 1 Commodities and Transactions NES ,066,957 1
,145,565 1
,045,498
Source: MOCI, CBL, 2014 7.4 Direction of Trade
During 2014, Asia accounted for the largest continental share of Liberia's export, accounting for 53 percent, followed by Europe 29 percent, North America 17 per cent, and Africa 2 per cent. Bilateral trade analysis however shows that China was the largest trading partner, accounting for at 45 percent of Liberia's total export, followed with United States of America with 17 per cent, France with 10 per cent, Pakistan 6 per cent, Poland with 5 per cent, and the rest of the world (ROW) with 17 percent. Figure 12: Liberia Key Export Destinations, 2014
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry 7.5Flow of Remittances
Preliminary data indicates that net flow of remittances for the period under review deteriorated by about 29 percent from 2013 to 2014 (see Table 17).Although inflows of remittance increased by about 49 percent, outflows also expanded by more than 46 percent. The increase in remittance inflows was mainly driven by major expansion in donor funds and personal remittances, in response to the fight against the Ebola outbreak. Total outward remittances also increased in 2014compared to 2013, imports payments and workers outward remittances. Table 17: Flow of Remittances, 2013-2014
Source: Central Bank of Liberia 8. SO CIAL SERVI CES SECT O R
8.1Health
In 2014, the health sector experienced greater challenges and became overwhelmed by the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak that threatened both economic and social livelihoods of the population. The first case of the deadly disease was reported in March of 2014, and by November2014, the cumulative cases had totalled 7,278, of which there were 3,079 cumulative deaths. As part of global fight against the deadly disease, the UN passed a resolution leading to the establishment of the United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER). This body is meant to ensure effective and coherent action necessary to stop the emergence of new cases, treat the infected, ensure essential services, preserve stability and to prevent the spread to other countries which were not yet affected. To manage the health situation in the country, the Government set up an Ebola Task Force, at the Incidence Management Centre with the main focus on epidemiology and opened a national Ebola Command centre to oversee coordination and planning, conduct monitoring and evaluation, including contact tracing. The health sector continues to be threatened since there is less predictability of full eradication of the disease, even though reported new cases have significantly declined. Major health facilities across the country were almost abandoned as a result of the increased number of fatalities among health workers who are in the frontline of the fight against the Ebola epidemic. To ensure immediate restoration of essential health services across the country, the health sector requires approximately US$58 million over the next 12 months. This amount is intended to support health-service delivery, incentivize healthcare workers, strengthen psychosocial services and increase access to counselling. The amount is also to cover logistics for county-level health teams and strengthen diagnostic services, improve supply chain management at the levels of all the 15 counties and strengthen health information systems for monitoring and research. Good health is an important development outcome, with improved health care delivery services bringing broader benefits, including enhanced economic development. Health impacts economic growth by reducing production losses due to worker illnesses, increasing the productivity of adult as a result of better nutrition, lowering absenteeism rates and improving learning among school children. The Ministry of Health and Social Welfare in 2011 published the National Health and Social Welfare Policy and Plan 2011-2021 which sets the sector strategy for 2012-2017 and beyond. Consistent with the strategy, the goal of the heath sector is to improve the health and social welfare status of the population of Liberia on an equitable basis by means of a three-pronged strategic objective geared towards:  Increasing access to and enhancing the utilization of quality health and social welfare services to be delivered to communities endowed with the necessary resources and offering a comprehensive package of interventions of proven effectiveness;  Ensuring that health and social welfare services are more responsive to people's needs, demands and expectations by transferring management and decision making in order to lower administration levels thus ensuring a fair degree of equity; and  Ensuring that health care and social protection available to all of Liberia's population, regardless of an individual's position in society, at a cost that is affordable to the country. Combined efforts by the Government and its development partners to improve the country's health systems have resulted in:  An increase in the percentage of deliveries assisted by skilled birth attendants;  An increase in the number of families with access to family planning;  An increase in the percentage of children under the age of one year who received DPT3/pentavalent-3 vaccination;  An increase in the out-patient-delivery (OPD) consultations per inhabitant per year;  An increase in the percentage of pregnant women provided with second dose of IPT for  An increase in the percentage of pregnant women testing HIV+ that are receiving ARV prophylaxis to reduce mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT);  A reduction in the number of smear positive TB cases notified per 100,000 population;  An increase in the number of skilled birth attendants (physicians, nurses, midwives and physician assistants) per 10,000 population; and  An increase in the percentage of facilities with no stock-out of tracer drug during the period (amoxicillin, cotrimoxazole, paracetamol, ORS, iron folate, ACT and FP commodity). The Malaria Control Program successfully distributed 1,000,000 long lasting mosquito nets to the general population and pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in six counties. Moreover, an in-door spraying exercise of 40,000 rural households along with an awareness campaign on malaria prevention and distribution of tracer drugs to all public health facilities was conducted during the period under review. In an attempt to improve the eye sight of the citizenry, 23,959 persons were provided with health services with respect to cataract surgery, trauma, glaucoma, refractive error and other eye condition while 5,711 persons were provided with mental health services to treat anxiety disorder, mood disorder, impulse control, substance abuse, etc.). In an attempt to increase the expansion of health services so as to improve access to the delivery of under skilled birth attendants for pregnant women with poor geographic access, the following efforts were made:  Three maternal waiting rooms and four maternal wings were constructed at various health  Five microscopic laboratories were constructed in five counties;  Eight incinerators were constructed to improve waste management and sanitation at eight health facilities;  Four clinics and one health center constructed;  Two staff housing at health facilities were constructed;  Finalized infrastructure design work for the National Drug Services (NDS) central  Installed 53 solar panels at health facilities in six counties; and  Developed a national Health Infrastructure Policy. In an effort to build the much needed capacity in the health sector, 22 international scholarships along with 257 local scholarships were provided to students at various universities and health training institutions. Training initiatives undertaken during the period included:  The launch of the Post Graduate Residency Program which resulted into the training of 19 residents in the areas of general surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, internal medicine and pediatrics;  Supported 20 employees to acquire additional skills and knowledge at the Liberia Institute of Public Administration (LIPA);  Deployed graduates of the A.M. Dogliotti College of Medicine to be trained in basic surgical emergencies in 6 hospitals for subsequent assignment in county hospitals;  Integrated EPSS (Emergency Package for Social Services) and EPHS (Emergency Package for Health Services) by training 28 social workers in new EPSS services in 2 counties;  Launched of the Promise Renewed initiative in line with international "Child Survival Call  Provided 83 orphanages and 3,357 orphans with support;  Developed a concept paper to initiate national health insurance to jumpstart universal health coverage: health and social protection for all; and  Six counties contracted-in for the delivery of health and social welfare services in line with the Ministry's decentralization plan. Table 18: Health Indicators
Baseline
Achievement
Outcome Indicators
Target 2021
Percentage of deliveries assisted by skilled birth Couple-years protection with family planning methods Percentage of Children under one year who received DPT3/pentavalent-3 vaccination OPD consultations per inhabitant per year Percentage of pregnant women provided with 2nd dose of IPT for malaria Number of pregnant women testing HIV+ and receiving ARV prophylaxis to reduce the risk of MTCT Number of smear positive TB cases notified per 100,000 population Number of skilled birth attendants (physicians, nurses, midwives and physician assistant)/10,000 population Percentage of facilities with no stock-out of tracer drugs during the period (amoxicillin, cotrimoxazole, paracetamol, ORS, iron folate, ACT, FP commodity) Source: Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, 2014 8.2 Education
Education is essential for developing the necessary human capital needed for maintaining and sustaining rapid economic growth and development. Realizing this potential benefit, the Government has placed education as a high priority issue along with its development partners. Investment in the sector is intended to increase classroom infrastructure as well as to increase the knowledge and skills of teachers. This is consistent with the 2009 Education Sector Plan, the five-year (2012-2017) Medium Term Plan for Education Reform and Development in Liberia, the Education Reform Act of 2011 and the draft Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) Policy of 2011. The aim of the Government's investment in education is five-fold:  To ensure equitable access to free basic education for all children and youth, including the most marginalized in society;  To improve quality, relevance and accessibility of secondary, tertiary, vocational/technical education programs and to alternative basic education programs for out-of-school adolescents and youth;  To efficiently strengthen educational services and information management at the national level with focus at the community level;  To improve Parent Teacher Associations (PTA) and national oversights, standards and coordination to ensure quality education; including non-government early child care and development (ECCD) programs for children aged 0 to 5 years; and  To increase the numbers of and improve competencies of teachers in formal schools and alternative basic education programs. The Education sector also experienced greater challenges in 2014.Because of the Ebola epidemic, the education sector was paralyzed with all schools remaining closed to avoid bodily contacts amongst the students. In order to improve the quality and conditions of teaching and learning at all levels and to prepare for the reopening of schools, an amount of US$59 million is needed as short-term support to the sector. The amount will be used to provide the needed materials for students across the country. The prolonged school closure is likely to impact education outcomes and increase the number of dropout rates at various levels. Before Ebola struck, some key achievements that were realized in the educational sector included, among others:  Successful implementation of an Education Management Information System (EMIS) data collection for compiling education statistics, personal listings and GIS school verification;  Construction, including the furnishing and equipping with all needed furniture and equipment, of County Education Offices and Learning Resources Centers in four counties (Bomi, Grand Cape Mount, Gbarpolu and Margibi);  Provision of School Grants for School based management and strengthening of school administrations across the country;  Construction of eight new primary schools in Rivercess, Nimba, Maryland, Lofa, Grand Cape Mount and Gbarpolu and one combined primary and junior high school in Grand Cape Mount. Moreover, thirty-three out of forty schools were renovated in Rivercess, Sinoe, Nimba, Montserrado, Grand Gedeh, Bong and Bomi; and  Development of a diagnostic report on higher education resulting in the formulation of a five-year Higher Education Strategic Plan (HESP) to guide the sector and the decentralization of education. Thus the Grand Gedeh Community College was established with 65 percent of construction work on facilities completed. 8.3 Water and Sewerage Services
The growth in Liberia's population has adversely impacted on the domestic supply of water and sanitation services. Access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation services positively impact on people thereby leading to significant social, economic and environmental benefits. As of 2013, an estimated 63 percent of the population now has access to protected water resources which consists mainly of wells, boreholes with hand pumps, springs and harvested water. Despite these gains, only a third of the population has access to water resources with adequate yield all year round with an estimated 63 percent of households storing water in open containers. With respect to sanitation, 25 percent of households (53 percent urban and 17 percent rural) have access to improved sanitation. However, there is a prevalence of high open defecation (77 percent of rural households and 30 percent of urban households) and the lack of solid waste disposal or sewerage systems, poor drainage and poor disposal of garbage. This prompted the Government along with its development partners to focus on the water and sanitation sector with the intent of increasing access to safe water supply and sanitation and improving hygiene practices with the objectives of:  Managing, expanding and sustaining Liberia's WASH services through a clear, functional and inclusive WASH governance structure and with strengthened operational guidelines, training and financing;  Expanding equitable access to environmentally-friendly and sustainable water, sanitation services and solid waste management – including for the poorest and most vulnerable communities;  Increasing safe hygiene practices (e.g., hand washing and reduced open defecation) and strengthening community organizations and schools; and  Improving WASH sector capacity and engagement with stakeholders and strengthening WASH monitoring and information management systems. Given these objectives, the following interventions were made within the sector during the period under consideration:  Developed and published the WASH Sector Investment Plan;  Developed and published the WASH Sector Capacity Development Plan;  Supported 20 employees to acquire additional skills and knowledge at the Liberia Institute of Public Administration (LIPA);  Deployed graduates of the A.M. Dogliotti College of Medicine to be trained in basic surgical emergencies in 6 hospitals for subsequent assignment in county hospitals;  Integrated EPSS and EPHS by training 28 social workers in new EPSS services in 2  Launched of the Promise Renewed initiative in line with international "Child Survival Call to Action";  Provided 83 orphanages and 3,357 orphans with support;  Developed a concept paper to initiate national health insurance to jumpstart universal health coverage, health and social protection for all; and  Six counties contracted-in for the delivery of health and social welfare services in line with Ministry's decentralization plan.

Over the course of 2013, Liberia Water and Sewer Services coverage decreased by 17.56 percent
relative to 2012. Moreover, its business and family customers decreased by 11.75 percent and
21.82 percent respectively as compared to 2012. This can be attributed to an increase (87.68
percent) in the cost of cubic meter of water.
Recent development in the water and sanitation sector shows general improvement over the last
decade. This is likely to positively impact socio-economic benefits through improved health and
environmental sanity. According to the Joint Monitoring Programmed for Water Supply and
Sanitation 2014 report, total water coverage improved by 3 per cent to 75 percent, pipe onto
premises improved by additional 1 per cent to 4 per cent, surface water remained unchanged at
13 per cent in 2012.
Regarding sanitation coverage, total improvement in 2012 increased to 17 per cent compared to six years earlier when improvement accounted for 16 per cent. Shared improvement stabilized at 23 per cent, other improvement slipped by 1 per cent to 13 per cent, while open defecation remains high consistently at 47 per cent. Other unimproved sanitation coverage is gradually declining, a good signal for improved sanitation. According to the Liberia Water and Sewer 2014 report, total coverage expanded by 39 per cent in 2014 compared to the year earlier. Cost of cubic meter of water per business customer (US$) Total number of business customers 1,099 574 630 556 782 Total number of family customers 3,014 3,218 3,474 2,716 3,892 SEWER (Special Sewer Customers) 725 871 840 869 1,015 DESLU (Desludging Customers) KIOSK (Community Stand Pipe) BUSD (Demand Business Customers) 6 6 4 4 4 WTBS (Water Trucking Customers) Total Coverage of LWSC Services
4,955 4,771 5,051 4,164 5,808
Source: Li beri a Wa ter a nd Sewer Corpora tion,2014 Table 19: Water & Sewer Development in Liberia, 2010-2014
The major drivers for the increased growth were business customer, 41 per cent increase in 2014 and family customer recorded 43 per cent increase compared to 2013. The growing demand for water consumption was in response to the Ebola outbreak. Increased water use was to hydrate the human body and to wash hands as well as water supplies to Ebola Treatment Units (ETU. The cost of cubic meter per customer remained more-or-less the same in 2014 at around US$3.96 per business customer (see table 20) 9. INFRAST RUCT URE AND O THE R B ASIC SERVI CES
9.1 Infrastructure
Investment in infrastructure is a critical step towards generating and sustaining rapid economic growth and development. Infrastructure provides services that support economic growth by increasing the productivity of factor inputs (specifically labor and capital) in the production process thereby reducing the costs of production and raising profitability, production, income and employment. Realizing the critical role infrastructure plays in the economy, the Government developed the Agenda for Transformation (AfT), Liberia's poverty reduction strategy, which identifies the Government's priority projects, a large portion of which cover infrastructure development. The total cost of implementing the AfT is estimated at approximately US$3.2 billion over the five-year period (2012-2017); the Government has succeeded in mobilizing over US$2 billion in committed financing for the AfT, including US$114 million of its own resources through the Public Sector Investment Plan (PSIP) and US$393 million from borrowing. Notably, the needs of the energy and environment sector under the AfT have been met by commitments from the Government and its donor partners; however, due to the infrastructure needs of the country, a significant funding gap, estimated at US$825 million, remains in the infrastructure sector. The country's priority infrastructure projects have been classified into three categories as showing Table 20. Funding for Category I projects, which cost US$1.33 billion, has been secured, feasibility studies completed, and some of the projects are currently being implemented. With respect to Category II projects, which cost US$486 million, feasibility studies have been completed, however, funding is still lacking. Finally, Category III projects, which cost US$705 million, are those projects whose feasibility studies are yet to be conducted and for which funding is also lacking.
Table 20: Priority Infrastructure Projects
CATEGORY I
CATEGORY II
CATEGORY III
 Mt. Coffee Hydro  Monrovia – RIA-Firestone  Monrovia-Tubmanburg  VIA Reservoir  HFO (World Bank)  Paynesville-Kakata (T&D)  Monrovia Consolidation ROADS & BRIDGES
 Paynesville-Ganta-Guinea ROADS & BRIDGES
 Fish Town – Harper  Gbarnga – Voinjama- ROADS & BRIDGES
 Ganta-Yekepa (AML) Mendikorma (Lot 1)  Bo waterside  Somalia Drive- Red Light  Ganta – Zwedru-Fishtown  Caldwell Bridge  Zwedru-Greenville (PUTU) AGRICULTURE
 West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP)  Smallholder Tree Crop Revitalization Support Project  Greenville Port (wharf etc.)  Smallholder productivity enhancement project (SAPEC) A good and reliable road network is vital for Liberia's economic growth and development. Roads are essential in that they enhance accessibility to markets and services. Hence, there is a strong positive correlation between a country's economic development and the quality of its roads. In 2013, the government made significant efforts aimed at improving the road network in the country. Before the Ebola Virus Disease struck in March 2014, significant progress was recorded in the implementation of roads and energy projects. Prominent among these projects was the commencement of the reconstruction of the Mt. Coffee Power Plant, pavement works of the Red Light – Ganta Highway and the Fishtown – Harper Highway. Several roads in the country were under construction and/or rehabilitation before most of them were put on halt as most contractors withdraw their workers because of EVD. These roads included:  The 12km Caldwell to Louisiana road;  The 2.8 km Police Academy Road which links SKD Blvd to Greater Paynesville community via Police Academy Community;  The 6.6km AB Tolbert Road to Duport Road which links ELWA Junction to the Duport Road via the A. B. Tolbert road through Greater Paynesville and Duport Road;  The 4.2 km Duport to Soul Clinic through ZayzayCommunity Road;  The 1.1 km Jamaica road which links the Jamaica road to the Somalia and UN Drive;  The 1.6 km Clara town road;  The 4 km Logan Town to Mombo Town Road;  The rehabilitation of the 13.2 km Somalia Drive road that links the Freeport of Monrovia to  The rehabilitation of the Kolahun junction to Vahun to Bomaru road; and  The rehabilitation of the 86km Kaweaken to Barclayville road. Hence improvement in the road network will enhance accessibility to social infrastructure (schools, churches, mosques and health center), increase access to education and health facilities, improve social interaction and mobility thereby improving access to markets through the reduction in transport costs and improving the marketability of perishable goods through timely and affordable transportation. The supply side benefits of an improved road network include reduced vehicle operating costs, savings in travel time, reduced accident costs resulting from the upgrading of roads and possible savings in maintenance costs as these roads are bound to withstand harsh weather if they are well maintained. 9.2 Energy generation, transmissions and distribution

Electricity plays a vital role in the socio-economic development of a nation. As both agricultural
and industrial activities increase, the demand for energy similarly increases. Thus the
Government has identified the provision of a greater access to energy as an important step to
grow the Liberian economy and improve the living standard of the people. As a consequence,
progress is being made to provide energy to as many customers as possible. In 2013, the total
number of power subscribers amounted to 18,510 which represent a 38.68 per cent increase over
the 2012 customer base. The increase was attributable to the streamlining of processes at the
Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC) which resulted in the creation of an electronic database.
Moreover, to reduce operating cost and delinquency payment, the prepaid metering system was
introduced. The total benefit of these reforms has seen an increase of 14.53 percent in total kilo-
watt-hour (KWH) supplied in 2013 as compared to 2012.
Table 21: Electricity Indicators, 2010-2013
Total Number of Customers Total KWH of Power Supplied Unit Cost of Power (US$) Demand Forecast (%) Source: Liberia Electricity Corporation
Achieving nation-wide access to electricity has been set as a major priority by the Government.
Access to electricity is particularly important to human development as sustainable provision of
electricity frees large amounts of time and labor and promotes better health and education. Hence
the Government along with its development partners has committed resources towards the
rehabilitation of the Mt. Coffee Dam and the importation of electricity from the Ivory Coast.
Over 95 percent of the Liberian population lack access to electricity while electricity
connectivity in rural Liberia is non-existent. Currently, access to the national power grid is
restricted to a few communities in Monrovia and Ganta. The connected communities in
Monrovia are Bushrod Island, Buzzi Quarter, Clara Town, Congo Town, Gardnerville, Jamaica
Road, Logan Town, Monrovia, New Kru Town, New Port Street, Paynesville, Point Four,
Sinkor, Slipway, St. Paul Bridge, Vai Town and West Point while the connected community in
Ganta is Ganta City. Currently, all of the LEC subscribers are prepaid. Table 22provides a
categorization of the LEC power subscribers.
Table 22: LEC Customers Segmentation
Customer Segmentation Government of Liberia Non-Governmental Organization Public Corporation Liberia Electricity Corporation Prepaid Customers Source: Liberia Electricity Corporation

Table 23: Monthly kwh of Power Supplied
29,513,390
38,848,954
48,670,932
55,741,648
Source: Liberia Electricity Corporation The cost of generating power in Liberia is astronomically high as Liberia's power tariff is three times that of the regional average. Hence to ensure greater access to electricity, the Government has decided to subsidize the cost of generating electricity. This, coupled with the introduction of the prepaid metering system has resulted into a reduction in the unit cost of power from US$0.60 per KWH in 2012 to US$0.55 per KWH in 2013. Table 24: Breakdown of the Unit Cost of Power
Description
Fuel Adjustment Cost (FAQ) Goods & Services Tax (GST) Unit Cost of Power
Source: Liberia Electricity Corporation The Government has made significant strides in increasing access to energy. By means of the Liberia Accelerated Electricity Expansion Project (LACEEP), the Government has concluded plans to expand 66 KV lines from Paynesville to Kakata. Thus the distribution chain will commence from Duport Road North through Soul Clinic, Pipeline Road, Mount Barclay and Careysburg up to 15th Gate Community with further expansion from Kakata up to Weala, Margibi County. Moreover, by means of the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP – CLSG), the Government along with the European Union and the Government of Ivory Coast plan to import 225 KV of energy from Mahn – Ivory Coast to Yekepa for onward transmission to N'Zerekore in Guinea and Bo Waterside in Sierra Leone. Of the 1,349 KM of transmission lines intended to supply power to 18 communities in Nimba, Grand Gedeh and Maryland Counties, 33 KV of lines have been constructed. Other energy projects include the JICA-10 Mega Watts (MW) Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) Plant which is intended to build a 10 MW HFO Plant at the Bushrod Island Site of the Liberia Electricity Corporation; the World Bank (WB) US$10 million project which will deliver a 10 MW HFO Plant at LEC Bushrod Plant Site, the ELTEL Accelerated transmission and distribution (T & D) Project which involves four substations rehabilitation; distribution lines construction in downtown Monrovia up to Sinkor 20thStreet; installation of 66KV lines between Capitol Hill and Paynesville Substation as well as New Kru Town Substation. The project will see the connection of 6000 new consumers. 9.3 Communication sector
Communication sector continues to experience great improvement over the last two decades. In addition to the existing mobile systems provider, the Government have also granted license to a newly established high-speed service provider, the NOVAFONE Incorporated. The granting of an additional licence helps to complement the wide coverage of mobile subscribers and internet users. The number of mobile phone users per 100 persons has increased by 20 per cent between 2011 and 2013, but still below most of the West African Countries. Table 25: Mobile Cell Subscriber per 100 persons, West African Countries, 2006-2013
2007 2008
2012 2013
Source: WDI, 2014 The number of internet users has also increased from 2 per cent of the population in 2011 to 5 per cent in 2013. An improvement compared to Guinea which has 2 per cent of the population having access to the internet in 2013; the level Liberia was three years ago. This increase represents 53 per cent compared to the Sub-Saharan Africa increase of 33 per cent. With the fiber optic being fully operational, there will be increased number of internet users as well as mobile subscribers going forward, and this will send a signal of an improved compliance with digital age. Table 26: Internet User (per 100 persons)-selected countries, 2006-2013
Sub-Saharan Africa (Developing Countries) Source: WDI, 2014 10. FIS CAL RULES AND E CO NOMIC RECO VERY PLAN
10.1Fiscal Rules
In line with the macroeconomic projection indicated in the Budget Framework Paper (BFP) that feeds into the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) budget, the government included fiscal rules to guide the budget execution. In FY2014/2015, the following fiscal rules are strongly prioritized to manage the already limited resources:  Prioritized spending to the fight against EBOLA, inclusive of spending on social welfare services such as feeding patients in hospitals, clinics, treatment (isolation) centres;  Restriction on the purchases of vehicles, furniture, fixtures, office supplies, and non- essential items not used in the direct fight against Ebola;  Reduction in foreign travels of all agencies of Government by forty per cent (40 per  Automatic reduction of fuel and lubricant costs by twenty-five per cent (25 per cent) in all ministries, agencies and commissions that are not directly involved in the fight against Ebola. 10.2 Economic Recovery and Stabilization Plan
As a result of the economic and social consequences the deadly Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reined on the economy, the Government in close collaboration with its development partners is instituting a plan to device appropriate strategies and policies that are consistent with the existing 5-year development plan, the Agenda for Transformation(AfT) and Liberia Rising 2030. The AfT clearly defines the roadmap for Liberia's inclusive growth and development and contains five horizontal pillars: Peace, security and the rule of law, economic transformation, human development, governance and public institutions and cross-cutting issues. On the contrary, the Economic Stabilization and Recovery Plan (ESRP) address two key issues:  Assesses the impact of the outbreak at the same time implement and institute measures that will build a strong cushion against future reoccurrences; and  Showcase key areas of investment that will create economic opportunities for Liberians, especially in the short-run to get the country back on the path of sustainable development as per the AfT. To address the health crisis and restore economic sanity, the Government has identified immediate interventions including re-starting development infrastructure projects and private investments, enhancing agriculture productivity, enhancing education and building resilient health system in Liberia. ECONO MI C O UTL OOK FO R 2015
Looking ahead in 2015, the prospect of Liberia's economy seems quite challenging, given the continuing pressure of Ebola Epidemic on all growth sectors. However, real growth in the economy is estimated to improve to 3.0 per cent at the end of 2015, mainly driven by the recovery and improvement in agriculture, mining, and services sectors. The Government needs to focus on the right policies aimed at intervening directly on the primary growth sectors and strengthening the complementary growth enablers like the health, education and services sector and investing in the energy and infrastructure projects. It is essential that greater attention be re-aligned with the growth strategies for achieving the Agenda for Transformation (AfT) and Liberia Rising 2030. Increase in real growth will reverse the fiscal imbalances created during 2014. This will be a monumental task but medium to long-term robust fiscal planning must be the central point. The increase in the number of Ebola cases could induce greater pressure on unemployment which is estimated to trend higher in 2015. Inflation is expected to lower at 8.1 per cent due to falling international prices of food and oil. This development is expected to stabilize domestic prices and possibly fall below 2014 level. Going forward, more investment will be needed in the tradable sector in order to promote job creation and encourage value addition so as to make Liberia competitive, both in goods and services trade. References
[1] Annual Economic Review (2013) Volume 2 -Ministry of Finance. Available from: [Accessed 2 October 2014]. [2]J. Tefft (2005) Agriculture Policy and Food Security in Liberia, ESA Working Paper No. 05-11, March 2005[online].Available aAccessed 6 November 2014]. [3] Liberia: LISGIS Demographic and Health Survey (2013). Available from: [Accessed 8 November 2014]. Economic Stabilization and Recovery Plan (2014) World Economic Outlook (2014) Central Bank of Liberia financial and Economic Bulletin (2014) Central Bank of Liberia Annual Report (2014) Ministry of Finance& Development Planning Quarter 1&2 Fiscal Outturn Report (FY 2014-2015) Ministry of Health Report (2014) Minister of Gender, Child and Social Protection Report (2014) Bureau of Immigration and Naturalization Report (2014) Liberia National Police Crime Report (2014) Liberia Revenue Authority Report (2014) WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation- report on Liberia: updated April 2014 IMF (2013): "The Investment Financing-Growth Nexus: The Case of Liberia", IMF Working Papers 13/237. Liberia/IMF spreadsheet Mini Model –updated December 2014

Source: https://www.mfdp.gov.lr/index.php/economic-outlook?download=52:annual-economic-review-2014